Simulation Methods in Financial Mathematics

Course gives an overview of and practical experiece in the different aspects of applying Monte-Carlo methods for pricing various derivative securities.BeSt programmi toetusel valminud e-kursuse "Simulation Methods in Financial Mathematics " materjalid

Ekstremaalväärtuste lävendimudelid

https://www.ester.ee/record=b5416638*es

Distinguishing between anticipatory and responsive plasticity in a seasonally polyphenic butterfly

Seasonal generations of short-lived organisms often differ in their morphological, behavioural and life history traits, including body size. These differences may be either due to immediate effects of seasonally variable environment on organisms (responsive plasticity) or rely on presumably adaptive responses of organisms to cues signalizing forthcoming seasonal changes (anticipatory plasticity). When directly developing individuals of insects are larger than their overwintering conspecifics, the between-generation differences are typically ascribed to responsive plasticity in larval growth. We tested this hypothesis using the papilionid butterly Iphiclides podalirius as a model species. In laboratory experiments, we demonstrated that seasonal differences in food quality could not explain the observed size difference. Similarly, the size differences are not likely to be explained by the immediate effects of ambient temperature and photoperiod on larval growth. The qualitative pattern of natural size differences between the directly developing and diapausing butterflies could be reproduced in the laboratory as a response to photoperiod, indicating anticipatory character of the response. Directly developing and diapausing individuals followed an identical growth trajectory until the end of the last larval instar, with size differences appearing just a few days before pupation. Taken together, various lines of evidence suggest that between-generation size differences in I. podalirius are not caused by immediate effects of environmental factors on larval growth. Instead, these differences rather represent anticipatory plasticity and are thus likely to have an adaptive explanation. It remains currently unclear, whether the seasonal differences in adult size per se are adaptive, or if they constitute co-product of processes related to the diapause. Our study shows that it may be feasible to distinguish between different types of plasticity on the basis of empirical data even if fitness cannot be directly measured, and contributes to the emerging view about the predominantly adaptive nature of seasonal polyphenisms in insect

Annual and diel activity cycles of a northern population of the large migratory cyprinid fish asp (Leuciscus aspius)

Little is known about the exact movement parameters of migratory cyprinids listed as conservation priorities. A northern population of predatory asp, listed on the Bern Convention Appendix III, was studied in a near natural lake–river ecosystem by tracking adult fsh tagged with acoustic transmitters for 32 months. Activity levels in terms of swimming speed, swimming distance and movement range were four times higher during the warmer part of the year (water temperatures>12–15 °C, April/May–September), which coincides with their main feeding period, than other times of the year. All fsh had an annual riverine movement range larger than 40 km (max 110 km). Asp activity was afected by light, habitat type and water discharge. For most of the year, activity levels, in terms of number of movements per time unit, were higher during dawn and dusk than during day and night. Under poor light conditions and low temperatures, activity was also relatively high during the day. Fish were more likely to swim upstream around sunrise or during the day than during other diel periods. Knowledge about highactivity periods, which may render the fsh vulnerable to fshing and other impacts, can be used to develop and evaluate fshing regulations. Large annual movement ranges highlight the need for extensive continuous river systems open for migration between essential habitats. This study emphasises the need for region-specifc research on the ecology and behaviour of fsh populations in order to facilitate protection of the populations in the face of negative human impacts.publishedVersio

Body height affects the strength of immune response in young men, but not young women

Body height and other body attributes of humans may be associated with a diverse range of social outcomes such as attractiveness to potential mates. Despite evidence that each parameter plays a role in mate choice, we have little understanding of the relative role of each, and relationships between indices of physical appearance and general health. In this study we tested relationships between immune function and body height of young men and women. In men, we report a non-linear relationship between antibody response to a hepatitis-B vaccine and body height, with a positive relationship up to a height of 185 cm, but an inverse relationship in taller men. We did not find any significant relationship between body height and immune function in women. Our results demonstrate the potential of vaccination research to reveal costly traits that govern evolution of mate choice in humans and the importance of trade-offs among these traits

Ühise põllumajanduspoliitika strateegiakava 2023‒2027 eelhindamine : lõpparuanne

Maaeluministeeriumi (edaspidi MeM) juhtimisel koostatakse Euroopa Liidu (edaspidi EL) ühise põllumajanduspoliitika strateegiakava aastateks 2023–2027 (edaspidi ÜPP strateegiakava). ÜPP strateegiakava koondab senised esimese samba (otsetoetused ja varasemad programmiti rakendatud turukorraldusmeetmed, nagu mesindusprogramm Euroopa Põllumajanduse Tagatisfondist, edaspidi EAGF) ja teise samba tegevused (nagu maaelu arengu investeeringu- ja arengutoetused Euroopa Maaelu Arengu Põllumajandusfondist, edaspidi EAFRD). Koostatava ÜPP strateegiakava aluseks on Euroopa Parlamendi ja nõukogu määrus3 (edaspidi ÜPP strateegiakava määrus). Määruses toodud peamised ÜPP eesmärgid on keskkonna- ja kliimameetmete asjus varasemast ambitsioonikamad, suunavad toetusi paremini ning tuginevad kindlamalt uuringute, innovatsiooni ja nõustamise vahelistele seostele. ÜPP tulemuslikkuse parandamiseks on ette nähtud uus ÜPP rakendamise mudel, et nihutada poliitika kese nõuetele vastavuse jälgimisest tulemuslikkuse jälgimisele ning suurema subsidiaarsuse abil tasakaalustada ELi ja liikmesriikide tasandite vahelist vastutust. Uue mudeli abil soovitakse edukamalt saavutada ELi eesmärgid, mis põhinevad strateegilisel kavandamisel, laialdastel poliitilistel sekkumistel ning ühtsetel tulemusnäitajatel, parandades seeläbi poliitikavaldkondade sidusust kogu tulevase ÜPP ulatuses ning ELi teiste eesmärkidega. Uuendatud ÜPP üldeesmärgid perioodil 2023‒2027 on järgmised. ● Tõhustada arukat, vastupidavat ja mitmekesist põllumajandussektorit, mis tagab toiduga kindlustatuse. ● Edendada keskkonnahoidu ja kliimameetmeid ning panustada liidu keskkonna- ja kliimaeesmärkidesse. ● Parandada maapiirkondade sotsiaal-majanduslikku olukorda. Üldeesmärkide saavutamiseks on püstitatud üheksa erieesmärki. ● Erieesmärk 1: toetada põllumajandustootja elujõulisust tagavat sissetulekut ja vastupanuvõimet kogu liidus, et tagada toiduga kindlustatus. ● Erieesmärk 2: suurendada konkurentsivõimet ja turule orienteeritust, pöörates erilist tähelepanu teadusuuringutele, tehnoloogiale ja digiüleminekule. ● Erieesmärk 3: parandada põllumajandustootjate positsiooni väärtusahelas. ● Erieesmärk 4: panustada kliimamuutuste leevendamisse ja nendega kohanemisse ning säästvasse energiasse. ● Erieesmärk 5: edendada säästvat arengut ja selliste loodusvarade tõhusat majandamist nagu vesi, muld ja õhk. 18 ● Erieesmärk 6: panustada elurikkuse kaitsesse, edendada ökosüsteemi teenuseid ning säilitada elupaiku ja maastikke. ● Erieesmärk 7: olla atraktiivne noorte põllumajandustootjate jaoks ja soodustada ettevõtluse arengut maapiirkondades. ● Erieesmärk 8: edendada tööhõivet, majanduskasvu, sotsiaalset kaasatust ja maapiirkondade arengut, sh biomajandust ja säästvat metsamajandust. ● Erieesmärk 9: parandada ELi põllumajanduse reageerimist ühiskonna nõudlusele toidu ja tervise vallas (hõlmab nii ohutut, toitvat ja säästvalt toodetud toitu, toidu raiskamise vähendamist kui ka loomade heaolu tagamist). Neile erieesmärkidele lisandub horisontaalse eesmärgina põllumajanduse ja maapiirkondade elu kaasajastamine, edendades ja jagades teadmisi, toetades innovatsiooni ja digiüleminekut ning ergutades nende kasutuselevõttu. Erieesmärke täites peavad liikmesriigid tagama ÜPP toetuste lihtsuse ja tulemuslikkuse. Erieesmärgid saavutab liikmesriik oma valitud sekkumiste kaudu. Peale ÜPP prioriteetide on ÜPP strateegiakava koostamise aluseks MeMi eestvedamisel valminud Põllumajanduse ja kalanduse valdkonna arengukava aastani 2030 (edaspidi PõKa 2030). PõKa 2030 eesmärk on aidata kaasa Eesti põllumajanduse, kalanduse, vesiviljeluse ja toidutööstuse arengule ning konkurentsivõime kasvule, toidujulgeolekule, maa- ja rannapiirkondade tasakaalustatud arengule, samuti taimede ja loomade heale tervisele, muldade seisundi paranemisele, toiduohutusele ning puhta keskkonna ja liigilise mitmekesisuse säilimisele. Metsandust puudutavas osas on ÜPP strateegiakava koostamise aluseks Keskkonnaministeeriumi eestvedamisel koostatav Eesti metsanduse arengukava aastani 2030 (edaspidi MAK2030) eelnõu. Peale eespool nimetatud strateegiliste dokumentide on ÜPP strateegiakaval seos EL-üleste strateegiatega ning Eesti muude asjakohaste strateegiatega, valdkondlike arengukavade ja programmidega, millega eelhindamisel arvestati. ÜPP strateegiakava koostamisse kaasati riigiasutuste ja valdkondlike huvigruppide esindajad 15 eri töörühma vormis, eesmärgiga luua selline strateegiline dokument, mis aitaks edendada põllumajandus- ja toidutootmise ning maapiirkondade kestlikku arengut. Lisaks töögruppidele moodustati 2019. a juunis Eesti ÜPP strateegiakava 2021–2027 ettevalmistav juhtkomisjon (edaspidi ÜPP juhtkomisjon), kelle ülesanne on kujundada Eesti seisukohad ÜPP maaelu arengu toetuste andmist korraldavate õigusaktide kohta ning koordineerida ÜPP strateegiakava koostamist, teha ettepanekuid ja kujundada seisukoht ÜPP strateegiakava kohta enne kava esitamist Vabariigi Valitsusele. Rööbiti ÜPP strateegiakava koostamisega viidi läbi ÜPP strateegiakava EAFRD vahenditest planeeritava rahastamisvahendi eelhindamine turutõrgete väljaselgitamiseks (uuring valmis aprillis 2020) ning käimas on ÜPP strateegiakava keskkonnamõju strateegiline hindamine (edaspidi KSH, millega alustati oktoobris 2019), mis võimaldavad ÜPP strateegiakava koostades arvesse võtta hindamisel leitut.Ühise põllumajanduspoliitika strateegiakava 2023‒2027 eelhinnati Maaeluministeeriumi tellimusel ja seda rahastatakse Eesti maaelu arengukava 2014‒2020 tehnilise abi vahenditest. Eelhindajaks oli Eesti Maaülikooli hindamis- ja valdkondlike ekspertide töörühm.Ühise põllumajanduspoliitika strateegiakava 2023‒2027 eelhinnati Maaeluministeeriumi tellimusel ja seda rahastatakse Eesti maaelu arengukava 2014‒2020 tehnilise abi vahenditest. Eelhindajaks oli Eesti Maaülikooli hindamis- ja valdkondlike ekspertide töörühm

Infant survival among free-living bonnet macaques (Macaca radiata) in South India

© 2021 The Authors. Published by Springer. This is an open access article available under a Creative Commons licence. The published version can be accessed at the following link on the publisher’s website: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10764-021-00198-3Female reproductive success depends to a large extent on infants’ ability to survive to maturity. While most studies of female reproductive success have focused on the effects of individuals’ sociodemographic factors (e.g. age/parity, dominance rank) on offspring survival among wild primates living in less disturbed habitats, little research has focused on offspring survival in urban or peri-urban animals. Here we investigated sociodemographic and anthropogenic determinants of infant survival (up to 1-yr of age) in free-ranging bonnet macaques (Macaca radiata) living in a peri-urban environment in Southern India. We conducted the study from November 2016 to May 2018, on two groups of bonnet macaques at the Thenmala tourist site in the state of Kerala. Fifty infants were born across two birth seasons. 29.2% of infants died or disappeared in 2017 and 26.9% died or disappeared in 2018. We found that infant survival was strongly influenced by the mother’s parity: infants of experienced mothers had a better chance of survival than those of first-time mothers. We also found that male infants were more likely to die than female infants. However, we found no effects of mothers’ dominance rank, or of frequency of mothers’ interactions with humans and time spent foraging on anthropogenic food, on infant survival. Our results, consistent with findings from other wild primate species, show that even in challenging human-impacted environments, experienced bonnet macaque mothers have greater success than inexperienced ones

Cleaning up seas using blue growth initiatives : Mussel farming for eutrophication control in the Baltic Sea

Eutrophication is a serious threat to aquatic ecosystems globally with pronounced negative effects in the Baltic and other semi-enclosed estuaries and regional seas, where algal growth associated with excess nutrients causes widespread oxygen free “dead zones” and other threats to sustainability. Decades of policy initiatives to reduce external (land-based and atmospheric) nutrient loads have so far failed to control Baltic Sea eutrophication, which is compounded by significant internal release of legacy phosphorus (P) and biological nitrogen (N) fixation. Farming and harvesting of the native mussel species (Mytilus edulis/trossulus) is a promising internal measure for eutrophication control in the brackish Baltic Sea. Mussels from the more saline outer Baltic had higher N and P content than those from either the inner or central Baltic. Despite their relatively low nutrient content, harvesting farmed mussels from the central Baltic can be a cost-effective complement to land-based measures needed to reach eutrophication status targets and is an important contributor to circularity. Cost effectiveness of nutrient removal is more dependent on farm type than mussel nutrient content, suggesting the need for additional development of farm technology. Furthermore, current regulations are not sufficiently conducive to implementation of internal measures, and may constitute a bottleneck for reaching eutrophication status targets in the Baltic Sea and elsewhere. Highlights • Mussel farming is a viable internal measure to address Baltic Sea eutrophication. • Rates of nutrient removal depend on salinity at the regional scale and food availability at the local scale. • Cost effectiveness of nutrient removal by mussel farming depends also on farm type. • Total farm area needed for achieving HELCOM nutrient reduction targets is realistic